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Cain's Stimulating '9-9-9' Tax Reform
A new sales tax could be raised in the future—but so can any other tax. And the low marginal rates would jump-start the economy.
By ARTHUR B. LAFFER

Mr. Cain's 9-9-9 plan was designed to be what economists call "static revenue neutral," which means that if people didn't change what they do under his plan, total tax revenues would be the same as they are under our current tax code. I believe his plan would indeed be static revenue neutral, and with the boost it would give to economic growth it would bring in even more revenue than expected.

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In the recent past, federal tax revenues from the personal and business income taxes, all payroll taxes, and the capital gains, gift and estate taxes have averaged $2.3 trillion, while gross domestic product has averaged about $14.5 trillion. The total revenue from these taxes as a share of gross domestic product averages around 16%. Sometimes it's a good deal higher, as in the boom of the late 1990s, and sometimes its lower, as in today's "Great Recession." But a number in the 16%-19% range is as good as you'll get under our current tax code.

By contrast, the three tax bases for Mr. Cain's 9-9-9 plan add up to about $33 trillion. But the plan exempts from any tax people below the poverty line. Using poverty tables, this exemption reduces each tax base by roughly $2.5 trillion. Thus, Mr. Cain's 9-9-9 tax base for his business tax is $9.5 trillion, for his income tax $7.7 trillion, and for his sales tax $8.3 trillion. And there you have it! Three federal taxes at 9% that would raise roughly $2.3 trillion and replace the current income tax, corporate tax, payroll tax (employer and employee), capital gains tax and estate tax.

The whole purpose of a flat tax, à la 9-9-9, is to lower marginal tax rates and simplify the tax code. With lower marginal tax rates (and boy will marginal tax rates be lower with the 9-9-9 plan), both the demand for and the supply of labor and capital will increase. Output will soar, as will jobs. Tax revenues will also increase enormously—not because tax rates have increased, but because marginal tax rates have decreased.

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More at site.

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The federal gasoline tax will continue with its revenue dedicated to highway and mass transit infrastructure improvement.  Which, I believe is a good idea.

 

Of course, a major benefit from such a simplified tax system is the need for many less tax experts, lawyers and IRS agents.

 

The number of K St lobbyists will drop.  GE will be able to dismiss many of the 1,000 personnel dedicated to ensuring they pay no corporate taxes.  Perhaps, the planet will heal and the rise of the tides subsume.  And, the IQ of trolls will increase to room temperarure.

Since jimi obviously didn't go read the whole thing:

 

It used to be that the sole purpose of the tax code was to raise the necessary funds to run government. But in today's world the tax mandate has many more facets. These include income redistribution, encouraging favored industries, and discouraging unfavorable behavior.

To make matters worse there are millions and millions of taxpayers who are highly motivated to reduce their tax liabilities. And, as those taxpayers finagle and connive to find ways around the tax code, government responds by propagating new rules, new interpretations of the code, and new taxes in a never-ending chase. In the process, we create ever-more arcane tax codes that do a poor job of achieving any of their mandates.

I like Cain's idea of simplifying the federal tax code, but the notion of a federal 9 percent sales tax would not work, so long as states such as Alabama have heavy sales taxes.

 

State and local sales taxes, combined, in most Alabama counties range from 8 percent to 10 percent. Add the 9 percent federal sales tax, and most Alabamians will be paying from 17 to 20 percent sales tax on groceries. That is not fair to anyone, but especially to low-income people, who already spend a high percentage of their income on groceries.

 

That is a major flaw in this plan.

While this plan has nothing to do with state taxes, there's no denying that it imposes a federal sales tax that people must pay. It doesn't affect state and local sales taxes. So that means people who go to the grocery stores -- or other retail stores -- will be paying the federal tax PLUS the already-in-place state and local taxes.

 

In most of Alabama, that means people will pay a TOTAL sales tax of 17 percent to 20 percent.

 

The Cain plan may have nothing to do with state taxes, but it results in people paying sales taxes of 17 to 20 percent in Alabama. If that's not accurate, explain.

But the plan exempts from any tax people below the poverty line. Using poverty tables, this exemption reduces each tax base by roughly $2.5 trillion.


This would help on that and this is still a plan in progress. Cain has said it's just an intermediate step. Not perfect but a good step in the right direction. While they may pay that additional 9% sales tax, they save from paying that 15.3% payroll tax.

Prices however should be decreased since the up front costs of production are diminished.  You should not see a net increase in prices due to taxation.  On the other hand some states do not tax food, so those places would see even better pricing.

Cain's plan allows the capture of taxation on "cash only" business which typically now sees no taxation (ie, drugs, prostitution, etc).  It is the closest thing to a Fair tax plan that has been proposed thus far.

If you could add a 9% capital gains taxation to this, I think it would be evn more fair.

Originally Posted by Lionsfan:

While this plan has nothing to do with state taxes, there's no denying that it imposes a federal sales tax that people must pay. It doesn't affect state and local sales taxes. So that means people who go to the grocery stores -- or other retail stores -- will be paying the federal tax PLUS the already-in-place state and local taxes.

 

In most of Alabama, that means people will pay a TOTAL sales tax of 17 percent to 20 percent.

 

The Cain plan may have nothing to do with state taxes, but it results in people paying sales taxes of 17 to 20 percent in Alabama. If that's not accurate, explain.

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Exactly!  Thank you!

 

Cain is the one who's "muddying the water" saying one has nothing to do with the other.

Originally Posted by b50m:

But the plan exempts from any tax people below the poverty line. 

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Something y'all like to conveniently leave out:  the poverty line is currently set at $22,050/year for a family of 4 - which is ridiculous, considering you can't feed a family of 4 on $10/hour!

 

So, for a couple with two children making $22,100/year, TOTAL sales tax of 17 to 20 percent is acceptable?  Puh-lease!

Originally Posted by b50m:

Federal tax tables for a married couple after deductions for this year are;

$0 to $17,000 is 10%
$17,000 and $69,000 is 15%
$69,000 to $139,350 it is 25%.

Now if you think that 9% is too high for these groups, tell me why.

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Again, it is "in addition to" that's the problem because it doesn't replace other taxes.  

 

Cain says he'll get rid of the built-in taxes on goods and services, but he can't realistically accomplish that as president.  

 

So is he also going to do away with state and local taxes in Alabama and other states?  Since when does a president have that kind of power?

 

And if reforming the tax code were as easy as Cain tries to make it out to be, it would have already been done.  It will take a multi-step process to accomplish reform.  You can't just get elected president, implement the 999 plan, then repeal all state and local taxes, in addition to getting rid of the "built in" taxes on goods and services.  

 

And on top of all that, consider states like New Hampshire - a state which doesn't have a state sales tax - in this.  You think they'd go for this plan?  And what about senior citizens who are on fixed incomes?  You think the AARP is going to give their stamp of approval to this?

 

Once again, it gets the "FAIL" stamp.  





Speaking of AARP:

 

Link

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan would raise taxes on 84 percent of U.S. households, according to an independent analysis released Tuesday, contradicting claims by the Republican presidential candidate that most Americans would see a tax cut.

The Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank, says low- and middle-income families would be hit hardest, with households making between $10,000 and $20,000 seeing their taxes increase by nearly 950 percent.


"You're talking a $2,700 tax increase for people with incomes between $10,000 and $20,000," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. "That's huge."

Households with the highest incomes, however, would get big tax cuts. Those making more than $1 million a year would see their taxes cut nearly in half, on average, according to the analysis.

Among those in the middle, households making between $40,000 and $50,000 would see their taxes increase by an average of $4,400, the report said. Those making between $50,000 and $75,000 would see their annual tax bill go up by an average of $4,326.

"It's very, very regressive compared to the current system, and that's largely because we're exempting capital gains, and we're taxing your spending with the sales tax," Williams said. "People at the top end don't spend all their money and they get a lot of capital gains, so they are doing pretty well here."

Cain disputed the analysis Tuesday evening during GOP presidential debate in Las Vegas, where the other Republican candidates heaped on criticism. Cain has acknowledged that taxes would increase for some but says taxes would decrease for most....

Cain's rise in the polls has brought increased scrutiny, and his tax plan has taken hits from across the political spectrum. Some don't like shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to the poor and middle class; others don't like the new national sales tax....

Cain has said his plan would initially raise as much money as the current tax system but do it more efficiently, leading to economic growth, which would produce higher tax revenues. The Tax Policy Center analysis agreed that the plan would initially raise about the same amount of money as current tax policy, about $2.55 trillion in 2013.

The Tax Policy Center compared taxes on U.S. households under current tax policy, with those imposed under the Cain plan. In using current tax policy, the analysis assumes that tax cuts enacted under former President George W. Bush — and extended through 2012 by Obama — would be extended.

The center did a separate analysis that assumed all the Bush-era tax cuts would expire at the end of 2012. Under that scenario, Cain's plan would still impose higher taxes on 77 percent of U.S. households, the report said.


The Tax Policy Center is a research group formed by two Washington think tanks: the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution. Researchers at the center regularly testify before Congress on tax policy. The center's analyses during the 2008 presidential campaign were widely circulated....

Originally Posted by daddy joe:

Jimi - YOUR response shows that you have no understanding of the plan.  Again, it has NOTHING to do with state and local taxes, it is federal only.  If I pay less federal tax under the Cain plan, or ANY plan that is federal exclusive, I pay less overall. This is elementary math. Why is that hard for you to understand?

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So you have no issue with this being a real burden for the middle class and, especially, the poor.  Read my AARP link.

Originally Posted by daddy joe:

Jimi - YOUR response shows that you have no understanding of the plan.  Again, it has NOTHING to do with state and local taxes, it is federal only.  If I pay less federal tax under the Cain plan, or ANY plan that is federal exclusive, I pay less overall. This is elementary math. Why is that hard for you to understand?



You wont pay less.  Thats the point. 

Cain doesnt want you to pay less, unless you make more than $500,000 and up, then you will pay less.

 

Plus, 999 will require that you contribute 10% of your income to private firms for a retirement plan.  Thats a mandatory 10%.  So its really 9% + 10%, plus the sales tax.

And sales tax cant be financed, so buying a $200,000 house will now cost $18,000 more up front in down payment. That should put an end to the housing boom once and for all.

Originally Posted by Buttercup:
Originally Posted by daddy joe:

Jimi - YOUR response shows that you have no understanding of the plan.  Again, it has NOTHING to do with state and local taxes, it is federal only.  If I pay less federal tax under the Cain plan, or ANY plan that is federal exclusive, I pay less overall. This is elementary math. Why is that hard for you to understand?

============================================================================

 

So you have no issue with this being a real burden for the middle class and, especially, the poor.  Read my AARP link.

___________________________________

I am the middle class and I can't find any way this would cost me more in federal taxes than I currently pay.

CAIN: “I believe in the Chilean model, where you give a personal retirement account option so we can move this aside from an entitlement society to an empowerment society. Chile had a broken system the way we did 30 years ago. A worker was paying 28 cents on a dollar into a broken system. They finally awakened and put in a system where the younger workers could — could have a choice — novel idea. Give them a choice with an account with their name on it and over time we would eliminate the current broken system that we have.” — GOP debate on Sept. 7 at the Reagan Library in California.

 

The program is not optional in Chile, and it cant be optional here.  If you dont believe me, then you have more faith in politicians than I. 

Originally Posted by BO:

My guess is no one here cares who you are talking about with you speciality one liners. I dont think you are near as **** smart as you think you are. Somewhere you have drank a little to much of that liberal kool-aid.

And we have another comment from the ignorant wing of the Conservatives. Gets all of his information from Faux News and makes radio talk pundits rich for deceiving him every day. They keep you uninformed and dumb because you are easier to control. But, I am sure that you will never see that fact. You would rather live in blissful ignorance. Have a nice day, sweetie.

 

Since his plan has a cut off at the poverty level, this is a flat out lie.

 

The Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank, says low- and middle-income families would be hit hardest, with households making between $10,000 and $20,000 seeing their taxes increase by nearly 950 percent.

 

 

This is offset by the savings in SS taxes of about the same amount.

 

Among those in the middle, households making between $40,000 and $50,000 would see their taxes increase by an average of $4,400, the report said.

Originally Posted by Lionsfan:

Some on this thread seem to think the 999 plan will exempt those at poverty level from the 9 percent income tax. There is no mention of that on the Cain web site, and he did not state that during the debate or during his interview with NBC prior to that.

 

Can someone post a link to that assertion?

Laffer mentioned it in the orignal post. It is also discussed here.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...e_killer_111695.html

 

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