Israel/Iran

It's hard to guess what Israel will do but not so hard to guess what Jobama will do. America will not help in any way and will probably apologize to Iran if they are attacked by Israel.

Isreal would be wise to attack with or without the blessing of Obidiot, they should have taken care of the problem a year or more ago.

Suits me if Israel takes care of the problem without us. As I have stated many times, WE CAN'T AND SHOULDN'T BE THE POLICE FORCE FOR THE WORLD.
(all caps for a reason)

The reactor is not significant, but it makes good PR. The threat to Israel is the enriched uranium and warhead construction technology available from the former Soviet countries. That, coupled with the delivery vehicles that China has already provided would make Iran a real threat to Israel. The status of the Russian antiaircraft system that Iran may or may not have purchased and installed is Israel's primary concern. The S-300 is more sophisticated than our best systems and the ability of NATO aircraft to engage the system is completely unknown.

Interesting post, Juan, thanks.

If it comes down to Israeli/American tech vs Russian tech, the Israelis have a good chance to achieve their directive. Cruise missiles are stealthy and effective.

For sake of argument, let me disagree that the state of the reactor is insignificant. That much concentrated uranium, if disturbed, if it's protective systems are destroyed, might be dangerous. It was in Chernobyl.

Is an Israeli attack even effective? Is Iran going to risk assured annihilation to launch an attack, or will it be carried out by terrorists running the blockade? The situation is completely fluid, changing daily and I guarantee that the info supplied to media sources is completely wrong. The only viable weapons out there now that are at risk, in my opinion, are the Pakistani nukes. The Pakis refuse to tell the US or IAEA where they are, and what are the safeguards in place to prevent their use.

Juan,

You have good questions. I have no answers. I'm not hooked up to intel. I'm asking.

Is it possible to take out hardened nuclear sites from the air alone? Would it not take ground troops to accomplish?

Surely, Israel has no ground troops to insert into that field. Guess who is next door.

I don't see the Pakis complaining if Iran is taken down.

ANY attack on Iran would be disasterous.
Even if all of Iran’s nuclear facilities can be located, and even if they can all be destroyed with surgical air strikes, the ruling hardliners will just rebuild them — only this time without the constraints of IAEA safeguards.
However, the greatest tragedy would be the blow it would give the the Democracy movement inside Iran. Iranians have already shown the most vocal and demonstrated dissatisfaction with the Government since the 1979 revolution.
Even though it has quieted down, the movement, and desire is still very much alive with the average Iranian. Although Washington wants you to believe different, the average Iranian admires "Western" freedoms.
A strike on Iran right now, by any Western powers or (allies) will kill that movement. The ruling hardliners will use an attack as a reason to erase any hope of peacful internal democratic changes, and focus on the "outside" threat, and a cause to "rally" the nation.

you can't put any faith in anything Iran tells you,they are Liars just like the Russians, during the cold War Russia had a new Bomber that was Bad and we finally figured out they had them alright but they were made out of cardboard, if Iran has a Nuclear weapon then that makes Iran, north Korea, Pakistan, india and Israel that has them there, sooner or later one of them is going to use them and if I was Israel I wouldn't wait and take the first strike if I thought Iran was going to launch one toward me then I would try to beat him to the punch.

them people in that part of the world don't have anything to live for, the only job they have is Fighting and I know Firsthand that the Koreans don't have walking around sense, I was over there in 1956 and 1957 and the war had just been over about 4 yrs and 2 of them found an anti-personnel Mine, the one that has the 3 little prongs sticking up, and they wondered if it would go off and they backed up and threw Rocks at it and sure enough it went off and killed them both. not very smart to me.

quote:

Originally posted by CageTheElephant:
ANY attack on Iran would be disasterous.
Even if all of Iran’s nuclear facilities can be located, and even if they can all be destroyed with surgical air strikes, the ruling hardliners will just rebuild them — only this time without the constraints of IAEA safeguards.
However, the greatest tragedy would be the blow it would give the the Democracy movement inside Iran. Iranians have already shown the most vocal and demonstrated dissatisfaction with the Government since the 1979 revolution.
Even though it has quieted down, the movement, and desire is still very much alive with the average Iranian. Although Washington wants you to believe different, the average Iranian admires "Western" freedoms.
A strike on Iran right now, by any Western powers or (allies) will kill that movement. The ruling hardliners will use an attack as a reason to erase any hope of peacful internal democratic changes, and focus on the "outside" threat, and a cause to "rally" the nation.

I agree, Cage. The internal unrest just will not stop in Iran and we need to give it time to progress to what might be a peaceful revolution--or maybe a not-so-peaceful one. This is no time for precipitous action of the kind that got us entangled in the mess in Iraq produced by an impatient President and a gaggle of neocon advisors who led him into that stupid and costly misadventure. Obama has done well not to do anything toward Iran to alienate the constructive forces at work there.

Our spy satellites have the ability to sense atomic warheads. If the Iranians have them, I suspect we know where they are. Any attack would have to not only take out the nukes and the immediate ability to make more, but severely cripple the present regime. That would harm any chance of the resistance overcoming the mullahs. There is another option, but its not pretty.

Prince Albert,

No discredit to you, but I lived in South Korea for over four years -- from 1986 to 1990. They are no longer simpletons. Back then, they were ignorant because the Japanese kept them as slaves and serfs for thirty years.

Now, they are quite well educated. Their leadership was educated in the US, five deep, in most positions. Their schools rival the Japanese. True, too much rote knowledge like the Japanese, but they do quite well in business and science.

quote:

Originally posted by beternU:

quote:

Originally posted by CageTheElephant:
ANY attack on Iran would be disasterous.
Even if all of Iran’s nuclear facilities can be located, and even if they can all be destroyed with surgical air strikes, the ruling hardliners will just rebuild them — only this time without the constraints of IAEA safeguards.
However, the greatest tragedy would be the blow it would give the the Democracy movement inside Iran. Iranians have already shown the most vocal and demonstrated dissatisfaction with the Government since the 1979 revolution.
Even though it has quieted down, the movement, and desire is still very much alive with the average Iranian. Although Washington wants you to believe different, the average Iranian admires "Western" freedoms.
A strike on Iran right now, by any Western powers or (allies) will kill that movement. The ruling hardliners will use an attack as a reason to erase any hope of peacful internal democratic changes, and focus on the "outside" threat, and a cause to "rally" the nation.

I agree, Cage. The internal unrest just will not stop in Iran and we need to give it time to progress to what might be a peaceful revolution--or maybe a not-so-peaceful one. This is no time for precipitous action of the kind that got us entangled in the mess in Iraq produced by an impatient President and a gaggle of neocon advisors who led him into that stupid and costly misadventure. Obama has done well not to do anything toward Iran to alienate the constructive forces at work there.

Not sure you guys would have this same opinion if Iran were as close to us as they are Israel. Iran has said point blank their desire is to blow Israel off the map. I guess people's idea of what to do or not to do lies in ones views on Israel being its own country.

If Iran were sincere, then Israel would be gone. The technology and material is available. Ahmadoinjihad and the other Iranian leaders are only slightly crazy, they are really just power-hungry like all pols and are playing to their base. Perhaps the greatest threat to Israel is their new enemy, Turkey. Turkish hardliners are demanding that Turkey deliver reprisals for the attack on the Turkish flagged ship. The nukes in Turkey are controlled by NATO, but how safe are they really???

quote:

Originally posted by JuanHunt:
If Iran were sincere, then Israel would be gone. The technology and material is available. Ahmadoinjihad and the other Iranian leaders are only slightly crazy, they are really just power-hungry like all pols and are playing to their base. Perhaps the greatest threat to Israel is their new enemy, Turkey. Turkish hardliners are demanding that Turkey deliver reprisals for the attack on the Turkish flagged ship. The nukes in Turkey are controlled by NATO, but how safe are they really???

The turks would have to kill US servicemen to get to the nukes. Then, torture officers to get the codes/keys to make them work. Then, figure what to do about the incoming ICBMs.

quote:

Originally posted by JuanHunt:
The reactor is not significant, but it makes good PR. The threat to Israel is the enriched uranium and warhead construction technology available from the former Soviet countries. That, coupled with the delivery vehicles that China has already provided would make Iran a real threat to Israel. The status of the Russian antiaircraft system that Iran may or may not have purchased and installed is Israel's primary concern. The S-300 is more sophisticated than our best systems and the ability of NATO aircraft to engage the system is completely unknown.

Not exactly, a mix of drone and manned stealth aircraft could take out their radar and command posts. Missiles don't work well when they can't be fired or can't fix on a target.