Back when the AARP was merely worried about the calculation of the CPI.
According to the MA model, the FY 1998 surplus of $80 billion is expected to increase to $113 billion in 1999, $124 billion in 2000, and reach a peak value of $241 billion in 2010 before turning back into a deficit again in 202211. Our simulation shows that the forthcoming changes in the CPI would increase the surplus to $269 billion in 2010, $190 billion in 2019, and surpluses would continue until 2024. (See Figure 1.)